Jared Tabb

I’ve got a few hot takes I’m going to roll into a single post (ok, most are warm at best). I read another article about a CEO blamed AI for a round of layoffs when critics watching just pointed out that they really just had too many employees.

1. Our smartest college graduates were wasted in FAANG and Finance Companies. This one has bothered me for awhile. The top grades in math and engineering from our best schools were recruited hard and paid well to go perfect the Instagram algorithm that makes you addicted or to tweak nanosecond trading algorithms to eke out statistically significant trades. These acts made lots of money. This I believe to be the fault of the system not the people taking the jobs. You work to make money. There are much worse jobs for much worse pay.
2. Transportation technology development is depressingly slow. Here I’m talking about means of transportation. If you think of the evolution from 1906 to 1966 vs 1966 to 2026 it’s kind of boring. That first 60 years went from a couple of bicycle mechanics going 60 feet in the air to people landing on the moon. If you show a boat, a 737, and a 2026 Mustang to someone from 1966, they’d say “Yeah. We’ve got those.” Where’s my 500 mph trains, supersonic vertical lift planes, and hover cars? We even messed up the hover board.
3. Self-driving cars could be utopic but they’re going to get enshitified quickly. Most cars sit idle 96% of the time and are one of the biggest expenses in most homes. The majority of commercial real estate in suburbs is just parking lots. Self driving cars could mean more beautiful and walkable public spaces while lowering costs. I could see a suburbanish two car household going down to one. Use the robotaxi to go to the store and commercial activities but have the truck/SUV for roadtrips, hauling, and utility. However, the companies leading the way are Zoox (Amazon), Waymo (Google), Tesla (Xitter). They make their money on ads. There’s going to be a big cohort that’s going to eventually rely on these services and they’re going to be ok, but they’re going to be subsidized by constant ads or pay 3x to go ad free.
4. We’re primed for a revolution in mechatronics and physical automation What do we do with all this talent downsized at overbloated VC-backed and public companies? Robotics. I think we’re decades away from having a humanoid robot take a plumbers job. But we’re primed for small scale manufacturing to have an automation revolution. AI and ubiquity of low cost, low barrier to entry embedded platforms make it easier now than ever to learn physical computing. I am confident those white collar workers, even those outside of STEM, can start creating products and processes to create new and innovative hardware solutions. What if manufacturing becomes more local and closer to the small businesses: This $682 Garage Setup Produces $1,000,000+ A Year
5. We actually need more energy use I think energy efficiency is good. It’s just better stewardship of resources. But I really hate narratives about how we should be using less energy. Energy in our solar system, relative to our human life cycle, is dang near infinite. More readily available energy saves lives and brings people out of poverty. And it can just make life more enjoyable.
6. One of the greatest byproducts of AI is going to be clean cheap energy The obvious downside of point 5 is that the byproducts of our energy use and how we extract it. AI companies realize existing infrastructure and production methods cannot keep up with their demand so they are using their hype money to fund the second renaissance of nuclear power. The new technologies have little to no waste, zero chance of meltdown, are smaller scale and easier deployable. The main fuel sources Deuterium are readily available on Earth with about a billion year supply at our current usage rate. If we run out there’s a bunch more on Jupiter. Add to that that solar costs continue to drop while efficacy increases.

I think about 25% of my predictions come true so don’t go take this to Polymarket. I’m over most of the hype of AI, self-driving, EV, and 100% renewable. But I think overall, in 20 years things are going to be better than they are now.

I’m curious to get peoples opinions on this. Person in Scenario 1 is not lazy or stupid. Person in Scenario 2 is not smarter or harder working, per se, they just exhibit initiative. Person 2 is going to be vastly more valuable.

This is not a “Gen Z” thing. I was a program manager in my 20s and I was one of the youngest people in the group. You could describe my role as the external initiative for vastly more competent and experienced people. As Curtis Brown used to put it, it was helping people stuck on escalators.

I really hate when people rag on younger generations for things that are really just a lack of experience. Flip it around and it’s can also just poor mentorship. Were expectations clearly given? Did you grab the tool and grumble “let me do it” or did you painstakingly guide them on how to do it right.

Question I’m left with: How do you foster initiative?

#culture #initiative #ownership #leadership #mentorship

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